The world is watching what happens to oil since the capture of

Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro by U.S. forces over the weekend. Saturday, after a surprise U.S. incursion into the Venezuelan capital, Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, were seized and transported on a U.S. warship to face narco-terrorism conspiracy charges in New York.

Venezuela has the largest oil reserves in the world, more than 300 billion barrels, which tops even Saudia Arabia, but its output has tumbled over the past two decades because of aging refinery infrastructure, underinvestment and sanctions. It now represents less than 1 per cent of global supply, with most of it going to China.

President Donald Trump said over the weekend that U.S. companies are keen to get into the country and spend billions of dollars to rebuild the energy infrastructure. But analysts are skeptical, saying that would take years and there are doubts about how eager oil majors are to invest in a politically unstable country.

Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote, said in terms of supply risk, Venezuela’s output is “almost negligible, especially considering that the crude market is well supplied: the IEA projects a record oil surplus this year, while Trafigura warns of a potential ‘super glut’.”

Global petroleum inventories are about to break through levels not seen since the height of the pandemic, according to BofA Global Research. The projected surplus for this year is 2 million barrels a day, which the commodity strategists expect will keep West Texas Intermediate prices to an average of US$57, down from US$65 in 2025.

This likely explains why market reaction this morning was more of a ripple than a tidal wave.

Oil prices dipped early but have since recovered. WTI fell as low as US$56.30, but is now trading at US$57.70 and Brent has climbed back to US$61.

But there’s another asset to watch in the Venezuela story, said Ozkardeskaya.

According to estimates, the country is sitting on about 600,000

bitcoins in a “shadow reserve ,” worth more than US$55 billion at today’s price, she said.

The cryptocurrency hit a three-week high on the Venezuela news, rising 2.3 per cent to US$93,323 on Monday morning.

Ozkardeskaya said there are several theories on how Venezuela accumulated such a large store of bitcoin. Reports say the country may have converted gold from Orinoco Mining Arc into the cryptocurrency when prices were as low as $5,000 to build a shadow reserve and avoid sanctions. Other reports say they accepted USDT in oil sales and converted the stable coins into bitcoin.

If these assets are seized by the U.S. Department of Justice or held in strategic reserve it could tighten supply and support higher bitcoin prices in 2026.

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Artificial intelligence has been a powerful engine behind the U.S. economy this year. Investment in software, computer/peripheral equipment and data centres has grown by 19 per cent, with real investment in data centres alone up 25 per cent, said Robert Kavcic, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets.

The three core categories are now seeing annualized investment over US$1 trillion or about 3.5 per cent of the economy. Data centres have attracted investment in excess of US$41 billion as of the third quarter of 2025.

“The AI boom continues to power growth as we head into 2026,” said Kavcic.

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It’s easy to scream “boycott” when the American president is musing about Canada becoming the 51st state, but the prospect of selling a long-term investment like a vacation property into a cooling U.S. real estate market is one that is weighing heavily on some Canadians. The Financial Post’s Garry Marr looks at the options for people who own real estate south of the border.

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Today’s Posthaste was written by Pamela Heaven with additional reporting from Financial Post staff, The Canadian Press and Bloomberg.

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