Shoppers across the country are still eager to Buy Canadian as the holiday season kicks off, but those patriotic intentions may be running into the hard economic reality of a still high cost of living, retail experts say.

Early in 2025, Canadians responded to the U.S. trade war with an unprecedented show of support for homegrown products, but now are showing signs of an “attitude-behaviour gap” said Melise Panetta, a marketing lecturer at Wilfrid Laurier University’s Lazaridis School of Business and Economics.

“They still want to Buy Canadian and they will if they have an opportunity to do so and it makes sense for them economically,” said Panetta. “But they obviously are under more pressures and concerned about their spending.”

Black Friday marks the start of a crucial holiday buying season and it will be a test of how far consumers will go as they may face the choice between buying Canadian and taking the best deal they can find in a tougher economy.

Nina Noun, the owner of With Nini, a small fashion and home goods online business based in Ottawa, Ont., said she is still banking on the Buy Canada movement for her business to survive.

Noun designs and sews her clothing and accessories with her mother as well as some help from a Toronto-based production team. She said her expenses have been increasing, but advocates for shopping at local or Canadian stores have helped make eco-conscious and ethical production for her business more viable.

Still, she has noticed shoppers are becoming more price-conscious and are focused on mindful purchases, she said.

“Maybe (in) previous years (shoppers) would pick up three t-shirts, where this year they might spread their spending a little bit more,” she said. “They’re a little bit more conservative…. I definitely see a little bit more stress this year than previous years.”

Industry reports are mixed on how strapped consumers will face the holiday buying blitz.

PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) is forecasting a 10 per cent decline in Canadians’ purchases this season compared with last year, at an average $1,675 spend per shopper. But Deloitte Canada’s holiday retail outlook report said it expected spending to increase slightly, by three per cent compared with 2024.

“Regardless of anything economic, the spirit is high right now, and people are positive,” said Shaunna Conway, partner and national retail sector leader at Deloitte Canada. “We have a mindful consumer that’s cautious but optimistic and that’s helping insulate our economy.”

The Deloitte report also said nearly three-quarters of Canadians prefer to support local or Canadian-owned businesses, but Conway said the reality is that shoppers will continue to prioritize the lowest price or best value option.

“If the brand value or the price differentiation is too high, they will continue to go to online marketplaces,” she said.

Amazon still dominates the holiday shopping landscape, with 70 per cent of shoppers reporting they would buy their gifts through the e-commerce giant, according to the Deloitte report.

However, local retailers may still see some advantage when it comes to a share of consumers’ wallets.

Sixty-two per cent of Canadians said they plan to go “pro-Canada” this Black Friday weekend and allocate more of their holiday budgets to support local retailers, according to a November survey from business tech platform Square (owned by Block, Inc.), conducted by Leger Marketing Inc.

Square provides point of sale and other software for small businesses globally. While Square’s transaction data indicated many shoppers around the world were interested in supporting local economies, this was particularly true in Canada, said the company’s chief marketing officer, Lindsey Irvine.

Of those planning on shopping more at local retailers this season, more than half said they were willing to pay up to 50 per cent more to buy Canadian, according to the Square report.

That degree of aspirational patriotism may be a tall order given consumers’ struggles with the cost of living, said Toronto retail analyst Bruce Winder.

Inflation has been persistent, with the consumer price index up 2.2 per cent year-over-year as of October, according to Statistics Canada data, and Winder said shoppers will have to grapple with the “economic reality” of affording gifts while still paying their bills.

“If (shoppers) see certain categories where there’s a pretty big price difference, like 20 or 30 per cent, they’re going to probably walk away and buy the imported option, unless they’re affluent,” Winder said.

Some products, he noted, may not easily come with a Canadian alternative, such as electronics, which make up a significant share of gift-giving but are typically made in Asia.

Consumer sensitivity to price was also on display during Loblaw Co. Ltd.’s latest earnings call in November, when chief executive officer Per Bank said customers had been buying more discounted goods to keep their costs low.

Bank said that the removal of Canadian counter-tariffs in September affected the Buy Canadian equation as well: when Loblaw stores removed the related cost increases and tariff labels on some U.S. goods, customers switched back.

“We are seeing some customers who are going back to those products that they love, now that they are much cheaper than they were, and that will have some impact on Canadian sales overall,” Bank said during the call.

Statistics Canada also recently reported nearly two-thirds of businesses did not experience an increase in sales of Canadian products over the previous six months.

François Neville, an associate professor of strategic management at McMaster University’s DeGroote School of Business, said Buy Canada sentiment is still present but has been waning from its peak in the spring of 2025.

Neville said this could partly be due to the White House moving away from its rhetoric around annexing Canada. “I think that a lot of the emotion that was driving the movement was really an expression of Canadian sovereignty,” he said. “That rhetoric going away is sort of like taking a little bit of oxygen away from a fire.”

But price could be taking priority as well. The majority of respondents to the latest holiday shopping survey from the Retail Council of Canada (RCC) and Leger said price remains a top consideration and they are relying heavily on deals and discounts to manage costs. More than half said the Black Friday shopping event is the most important shopping moment of the year.

“Almost 60 per cent said holiday shopping still feels stressful, and that’s the highest we’ve seen in four years,” said Santo Ligotti, vice-president of member services and marketing at the RCC, adding that 40 per cent of respondents said they would consider gifting secondhand as well.

The RCC and Leger survey also reported that holiday budgets were fairly flat this year, which Ligotti said could suggest buyers are trying to get more for less.

Wilfrid Laurier’s Panetta said smaller businesses are more likely to depend on the Buy Canada movement to survive.

“The craft markets and the smaller and medium-sized businesses, they were the first impacted by the Buy Canadian movement,” she said, noting these businesses have seen close to 6.5 per cent growth this year.

Another small business owner, Mary Johnson, who runs Kids ‘N Krafts children’s store in Hamilton, Ont., said she has noticed shoppers buying less in volume this year.

“At one time, (parents might have bought their girl) a dress and a play outfit and a pair of socks or a hat, or a combination of those,” she said. “Now they buy maybe a dress and socks or a pair of tights.”

Andreea Bourgeois, director of economics at the Canadian Federation of Independent Businesses (CFIB), said small businesses are remaining optimistic, but they are not anticipating a stronger shopping season compared with pre-pandemic years.

In fact, compared with last year’s holiday season, one-in-five small companies expect lower sales revenue, while just over half expect sales to remain flat, according to the

CFIB’s latest data . Black Friday and Cyber Monday will be much more important for shoppers this year, Winder predicted, with more people looking for deals rather than paying for items at full price. Local shops will need to consider offering some sort of holiday discounts in order to attract buyers as well, he said.

“Even if you’re knocking 10 to 20 per cent off, it’s better than (nothing),” Winder said. “I have a hard time seeing people buying a lot at regular prices this year.”

Annie Vanrivong, owner of gift and home goods shop Wolf & Rebel in Windsor, Ont., said she is launching her first ever Black Friday and Small Business Saturday sale this weekend, offering a 50 per cent discount on all items.

“This year, I feel like it’s more necessary to sacrifice more of our profits in order to get the products moving off of our shelves,” Vanrivong said. “I’m hoping that the discounts will bring people in.”

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